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"Citation needed" ... at this point, the evidence of vaccine efficacy is pretty easily available. There are papers (with methodological flaws) claiming otherwise, but here's an example indicating higher rates of vaccination correspond to lower rates of covid-19 cases in NY:

https://journals.stfm.org/primer/2021/morley-2021-0035/

Quote: "The two-dose vaccination rate was a significant negative predictor of cases per 100K population in NYS counties (β= -.866, P=.031), with each percentage point of completed vaccination nearly equating to one case less in the daily count when controlling for county population size (β =2.732, P<.001)."

Natural immunity is not permanent. You can claim there's fairy dust in the virons, but there is ample evidence of reinfection, as well as an increased rate of reinfection by variants like omicron. But the specific article I linked indicated that re-infection -- while rare -- is possible both with natural infection, and with natural infection + vaccination. The latter is just rarer, as you'd expect from first principles.

PCR tests find nucleic acid, and this isn't the same thing as disease -- I agree with that. I would be fine if we use hospitalization rather than cases in discussion, because it's clear many infections are subclinical. (This is even more true for people who are vaccinated.) Zero covid was never a plausible goal; the goal should always have been to ensure we don't overload our medical infrastructure.

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Dec 14, 2021
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I think you meant to send a different study. That study ("Protection and waning of natural and hybrid COVID-19") talks about natural vs vaccine derived immunity -- and confirms (as I noted above) that infection derived immunity also wanes over time (but can be extended with vaccination).

You probably meant to send https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/ ; the thing is that despite their attempt to shift the topic from case rates to rate of change in cases -- their figure 2 provides clear evidence of decreased rate of covid cases in counties with higher vaccination rates ( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/figure/Fig2/ ); and comparing across countries risks apples-to-oranges comparison given different reporting frameworks, medical systems, and vaccines.

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