Lay Summary on: "Same feed, different fleas: why BA.3.2 looks different across highly Covid-19-vaccinated countries without being benign!"
We currently observe highly divergent trends in the viral evolutionary dynamics of BA.3.2 across distinct, highly Covid-19 (C-19)-vaccinated countries. I commented on this observation reported on X as follows:
“BA.3.2 sublineages most likely reflect a metastable state under near-threshold immune pressure. Under such a scenario, heterogeneous and fluctuating detection rates across highly C-19-vaccinated countries are not only expected- they are totally consistent with a system approaching a qualitative evolutionary transition rather than endemic stabilization!”
What the title of this article really means is that what appear to be different viral evolutionary ‘behaviors’ across countries are actually surface variations on the same underlying immune pressure and calling these behaviors ‘benign’ doesn’t make them stable or ‘endemic’!
If BA.3.2 variants are a sign that the virus is stuck in an unstable ‘in-between’ phase in highly C-19-vaccinated countries, then ups and downs in how often they are detected from one country to another are exactly what you would expect. In this situation, the virus is not simply trying to become more contagious in a straightforward way. Instead, it is struggling against widespread immunity that limits its ability to spread, making its success very sensitive to small differences between countries-such as vaccination (including boosting) rate and timing, how often people get reinfected, how much silent (asymptomatic) spread occurs or social behavior[1].
Because of this, even small changes can lead to noticeable rises or falls in BA.3.2 cases. The variant may appear to grow in one country, decline in another, and then reappear elsewhere without ever clearly taking over. This back-and-forth pattern suggests the virus is ‘searching’ for a way out of a tight evolutionary corner, rather than settling into a calm, endemic state. In simple terms, these irregular fluctuations are a warning sign that the virus is under heavy pressure and approaching a critical turning point, not that it has stabilized or become harmless! (see previous Substack article: https://voiceforscienceandsolidarity.substack.com/p/lay-summary-on-recent-substack-article-311).
[1] This last factor is an extremely popular ‘scapegoat’ among public health authorities and so-called experts, mostly used inappropriately to explain whatever pandemic evolution, even when it follows a consistent course across different highly C-19 vaccinated populations.
Thank you for continuing to educate us Geert. It’s such a privilege to read.
Thank you, sir.